Saturday, March 10, 2012
China Watch: China To Seek Lower Growth, Widen RMB Floating Band
While we are just in the beginning of the annual National People's Congress in Beijing (started on March 5 and is expected to last for 10 days), several surprises have already been delivered. First, regarding the economic outlook, Premier Wen Jiabao announced moderate goals for economic growth, inflation and money
Friday, March 9, 2012
Will UK and EZ Central Bank Meetings Even Matter?
The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are scheduled to make monetary policy announcements on Thursday but unlike previous months, these meetings should have a far more limited impact on currencies. 
Start Thinking In Terms of Risk-Reward
One of the cardinal rules of good trading is to always have an exit point before you ever enter into a trade. This is your worse case risk for the trade. It's the point at which you would say, "something's wrong with this trade and I need to get out
Thursday, March 8, 2012
The Importance of Position Sizing 2
You lose whatever you risk when tails comes up and you win twice what you risk when heads comes up. If R stands for you risk, this system is characterized by the two R-multiples it generates: 1) 1R (when you lose, you lose what you risk and R stands
Risk FX Consolidates Quietly
It’s been a very quiet night of consolidation in the currency market with risk FX taking a breather after yesterday’s drubbing as EUR/USD recovered to 1.3140 while Aussie traded at 1,0570. News that Societe General along with six Greek banks and several Italian insurance companies would all join the Greek debt swap deal helped ease market concerns regarding the PSI participation. 
Using Volume to Win 75% of Trades
For a currency to be traded and for its price to move from one level to another, volume is required. Or put another way, volume is the gas in the tank of the trading machine.
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Japanese Yen Uninspired by Eco Watchers Survey Release
Traders’ response to the Eco Watchers Survey was muted as a slight shortfall of expectations leads to no major portfolio changes
International Financial Outlook November 2011
Key proposals following the eagerly awaited EU summit helped to push €/$ briefly through 1.42, from 1.32 at the start of October, but the rally was short-lived. Political tensions reached fever-pitch as Greek PM Papandreou unexpectedly called for a referendum on the bailout package. After heightened concerns and renewed volatility,
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
U.S. Dollar & Currencies: Review and Outlook
In 2012, policy makers around the world may be driven by the realization that the theme of 2011 was not a Euro-specific crisis, but simply another stage in a global financial crisis. Central bankers may ramp up their printing presses in an effort to limit "contagion" concerns. As such, the
Forecast Update: Euro Area in Recession, US and China Recover
The global economy is increasingly decoupling. It seems more and more evident that the euro area cannot escape recession, as leading indicators point to a fall in GDP in Q4 followed by a small decline in Q1. This is in sharp contrast to the US and China where growth is
Euro Struggles for Footing in Asia
As reality settles in, the Euro is finding itself under renewed pressure, as investors consider worries of growth woes and implementation risks for the Mediterranean nation.
Monday, March 5, 2012
USD Trades Mixed after Factory Orders and ISM Non-Manufacturing Reports
New orders placed with American factories retreated in January as businesses sharply cut their investment in machinery and other core capital goods in the first month of 2012. Meanwhile, Non-manufacturing Institute of Supply Management report on business showed that economic activity in the non-manufacturing sectorexpanded in February at the fastest rate since March 2011.
Australian Retail Sales Propel Aussie Past 1.0800
Australian Retail Sales expanded at 0.3% pace in January right in line with expectations as spending on restaurants offset some softness in household goods. This was the best pace of consumer spending in 4 months suggesting that consumer confidence may have been buttressed by very strong labor market demand. Earlier in the month Australia reported blockbuster employment data which saw jobs increase by 46K while the unemployment rate fell to six month low of 5.1%. 
Sunday, March 4, 2012
Risk and Reward
How do you determine proper risk and reward in trading? I don't think anyone can ever provide a definitive answer to that question because its is akin to asking how many layers do you need to walk outside of my apartment in New York City in the winter. Right now
Themes and Trades for 2012
In our outlook for 2011 we highlighted that the level of uncertainty going forward was unusually high. If anything, in retrospect, this proved to be something of an understatement. Our stance was broadly a positive one for fixed income, a better USD story and for equities to look somewhat at
Learning to Trade the Forex Market
The beauty of forex is you can get started right away without any money and without having any idea what you are doing. To do this you open what is called a demo forex account. In your demo account you trade with fake money and you have fun learning how
Saturday, March 3, 2012
US Session: Orders and Options Watch
EUR: The single currency has remained under pressure after yesterday's Bernanke inspired selloff and mixture of bids and stops at 1.3290-00 is now in focus and more stops in good size are placed below 1.3270 but fresh demand from Asian names is expected to emerge further out at 1.3240-50 with
2 Key Questions Regrading EUR/USD and LTRO
The ECB lent out more than 529 Billion euros in its second ever 3 year tender offer meeting market consensus. Risk currencies reacted differently to the news with EUR/USD trading lower on a typical sell the news dynamic, but Aussie and other comm dollars rising as the increase in liquidity was viewed as strong positive for risk assets. 
Euro Hits Profit Taking As Week Begins
It’s been a very quiet opening to the start of week’s trade with risk currencies seeing some profit taking in the wake of the G-20 summit over the weekend. The G-20 concluded its summit in Mexico City by reaffirming its commitment to fiscal restructuring of member nations while at the same time calling for an increase in resources to boost the funding for IMF and European bailout funds. 
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